Monday, August 10, 2009

A Cautionary Signal From the VIX Futures

According to this Bloomberg report, futures traders expect the VIX to ramp up over the next five weeks. "Traders were betting the VIX, a gauge of expected stock swings, would increase 13 percent in the next five weeks, according to futures prices at the end of last week compiled by Bloomberg."

The report does note that the VIX may be expected to rise because some call writers are buying their calls back due to an expected earlier dip not occurring. The second half balances out the anticipated trouble the expected VIX rise portends, with a review of positive items. So, the VIX news can't be pegged as a definite warning that the major averages will fall in September, even if September (not October) is the worst month on average.

Still, it may be wise to take a leaf from Paul Tudor Jones [also quoted in the article] and wait to buy.

Note: I got this article because it was quoted in today's edition of the Casey Research Daily Dispatch

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